Iran

[TW501]

I created this thread to discuss Iran, which in recent years have made several bold (one may even say aggressive) moves. Iran is a Shi'ite Islamic theocracy that is dominated by Sharia Law and ruled by "Supreme Leader" Ali Khamenei. Iran's president is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a conservative who replaced the more moderate Mohammad Khatami in 2005.

There are several issues concerning Iran (and over the course of this thread, more are likely to turn up) but the topics most notable at the moment are Iran's nuclear program (which it claims is peaceful but other nations claim is aiming to produce nuclear weapons), Iran's human rights, its alleged smuggling of weapons and money to groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and the upcoming Iranian Presidential Election, which may see Ahmadinejad replaced. Discuss your feelings on these issues.

[TW501]

In yesterday's election, Iran's President Ahmadinejad won re-election in a landslide. This however is being heavily contested, with the reform candidate, Mir Hussein Mousavi, alleging fraud. The election was expected to be much closer, and the fact that numerous Mousavi websites were shut down and text messaging and cell phone service were cut, heavily raising suspicions. Already there are numerous riots and protests.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904563,00.html?xid=rss-fullworld-yahoo
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090613/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election

Does anyone have any thoughts of how this will turn out or on what effect this will have on world events?

(also, remember that this thread is also for discussing Iran in general, so you need not necessarily comment exclusively on the election)

[DK]

The fact that Ahmadinejad's approval rating was around 35-40% a few weeks ago, a "landslide victory" from 70-80% voter turnout seems way too suspicious. I hadn't heard about Mousavi's websites though. The conspiracy theorists might just have something here

[Meta]

It seems and sounds suspicious but can you really foresee, in any country around the world,the election results just from approval rating polls?I doubt it.
One must really understand the attitude and psyche of the voters in general to tell what their real intentions are concerning their pick.

In anyway,this is a seriously suspicious case

[btill9000]

I have no doubt that he will remain the leader of that country. I am only surprised that people haven't started dying yet.

[AfterExile]

I have no doubt that he will remain the leader of that country. I am only surprised that people haven't started dying yet.

The ones that have we arent going to hear about, hes a little smarter than Sadam he isnt testing chemical weapons of mass destruction on his people hes just jailing and executing the ones who oppose him.

[DK]

Breaking:
Telephones cut off in Tehran, Mousavi arrested, riots breaking out
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/6/13/742004/-Updated:-Breaking-Mousavi-Arrested:-Rafsanjani-Resigns,-Iranian-Police-Fleeing-from-Demonstrators

[TW501]

That will certainly complicate things.

[DK]

Some pics: http://bit.ly/18V6Bp
Some moderate violence and blood shown, fyi.

And a few videos on the riots:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ2V-GyRYvc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUySfM7hNbA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y39du9tOurg

[TwelveGauge]

The fact that Ahmadinejad's approval rating was around 35-40% a few weeks ago, a "landslide victory" from 70-80% voter turnout seems way too suspicious. I hadn't heard about Mousavi's websites though. The conspiracy theorists might just have something here

I agree. It's perfectly possible that, what with a government as unstable, corrupt and porous as Iran's, that the votes were 'mis-counted'. Such things have happened before, there was a report from Iraq that the presidential elections toward the end of Saddam's reign were rigged, as a way of keeping himself in power. Voters had been pressured into re-electing Saddam by the presence of armed soldiers that lean over people as they vote.

[Fatstogey]

Well actually Iran wanted to start peace talks with the US. The Bush administration refused.

[Marrow Rivengristel]

IDK I think maybe the Iranian police's riot gear looks like its strait out of a cheezy postappocalyptic 80's rollerblading movie.

http://www.badmovies.org/movies/solarbabies/solarbabies1.jpg

Just my opinon.

[AfterExile]

IDK I think maybe the Iranian police's riot gear looks like its strait out of a cheezy postappocalyptic 80's rollerblading movie.

http://www.badmovies.org/movies/solarbabies/solarbabies1.jpg

Just my opinon.

LMAO I was thinking it looked like something along those lines, its a little campy if you ask me.

[ismey]

meh their is a mass riot happening in iran not seen this size since the revolution cos of the elections and people thinking its been rigged....

[sallen3k]

Well, besides the foreign press being banned from covering the riots, now Iran is going to try and pursue websites that "incite people to riot" lol

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/17/iran.elections.rallies/index.html

Edit: I love how they will pursue those websites that "want to use cyberspace to incite riot, threaten people and create rumors"

Watch out especially for the ones that "create rumors" lol

[AfterExile]

Well, besides the foreign press being banned from covering the riots, now Iran is going to try and pursue websites that "incite people to riot" lol

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/17/iran.elections.rallies/index.html

Edit: I love how they will pursue those websites that "want to use cyberspace to incite riot, threaten people and create rumors"

Watch out especially for the ones that "create rumors" lol

The whole situation is screwed up...

I read that article and found this to be particularly disturbing-

"We are fighting with our lives and the world is just watching," said Ali, a Tehran University student who did not want his full name used for safety reasons. "They see how the government is trying to silence us, how they are beating us -- but they don't come to our help. It's OK. We will succeed, even if we have to fight alone."

...Maybe the UN is needed.

[sallen3k]

Unfortunately, there isn't much the UN can do. Iran is too strong and is a main supplier of oil to China and Russia.

Any UN Sanctions would likely have no teeth, if they even passed since China and Russia would likely shoot them down.

[btill9000]

The whole situation is screwed up...

I read that article and found this to be particularly disturbing-

"We are fighting with our lives and the world is just watching," said Ali, a Tehran University student who did not want his full name used for safety reasons. "They see how the government is trying to silence us, how they are beating us -- but they don't come to our help. It's OK. We will succeed, even if we have to fight alone."

...Maybe the UN is needed.

Everything that is happening is rather unfortunate, but not every country is a free country. It's not our job to make them free either. Not to mention that the guy that lost, believe it or not, is worse than Ahmadinejad.

[AfterExile]

Everything that is happening is rather unfortunate, but not every country is a free country. It's not our job to make them free either. Not to mention that the guy that lost, believe it or not, is worse than Ahmadinejad.

Yea he was the one thats been in power for how long now?? It just sucks for the people stuck in the middle of it.

[btill9000]

Yea he was the one thats been in power for how long now?? It just sucks for the people stuck in the middle of it.

Yup, the UN or no one came over here when Bush took the presidency, because it's our country and our system. Some country's don't even have elections and it's not our job to force them to. This is their problem to deal with.

[AfterExile]

Yup, the UN or no one came over here when Bush took the presidency, because it's our country and our system. Some country's don't even have elections and it's not our job to force them to. This is their problem to deal with.

Lol very good point, instead of helping, other countries just ran headlines such as "how can 59 million be so dumb" which is ironic because Bush got 62 million in that election and Kerry got 59.. but whatever atleast we are past the
"Bush era".

Back on topic... Does anyone else think this might end in a civil war?

[sallen3k]

As of right now, I doubt there will be a civil war. Maybe some more protests and unrest, but who knows for sure. I think Ahmadinejad is too smart to let that situation escalate. Regardless what people think of him, he's really intelligent.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has already endorsed Ahmadinejad's win. I'm curious to see how or if this affects the protesters opinion.

I think the protests will go from being about the election to being about the right to protest and voice their opinion.

Edit:
Not to mention that the guy that lost, believe it or not, is worse than Ahmadinejad.

Very good point here. Mousavi now branded a ‘reformist’ was prime minister and head of government for several years during the 80s when thousands were executed and hundreds of thousands arrested.

[TW501]

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has already endorsed Ahmadinejad's win. I'm curious to see how or if this affects the protesters opinion.
He's actually partially reversed his position by ordering a partial recount and an investigation into allegations, though there will probably be some suspicions and it may not be enough.

[Keiretsu]

Civil unrest is the more likely scenario from this, although one can never be too sure on things like this. Approval ratings wax and wane throughout a term, it would certainly be interesting if the election was in fact rigged and to see what sort of response the country would have in general to something like that. But a civil war? One could make the argument that if a civil war did start up, you'd have America backing the (by American media standards) freedom fighters with arms.

At least, that would seem likely. We've done that before.

[AfterExile]

But a civil war? One could make the argument that if a civil war did start up, you'd have America backing the (by American media standards) freedom fighters with arms.


That would definately be the case if that was to happen. I think the majority of this country and the ones running it would like nothing more than to see Iran fall into a state of civil war(one less powerful "oil" country to worry about).

[TW501]

So what do people think of President Obama's response to all of this? He's taken some heavy criticism for supposedly not being strong enough with his response. Personally, I think he's playing it safe, though he could probably be a bit more stern. Denouncing them is pretty much symbolic, as we don't really have anything to punish them with that we haven't already used. Also, if he were to give a long speech trashing the Iranian government, it would play in to their propoganda that this whole thing is all because of American interference. It's a tricky situation, and I think he's handling it cautiously.

[Yadomaru]

I think, if he wants to have any chance at delivering on what he said in that speech he made a while back, "cautiously" IS the way to handle this. For two reasons:
1. Seeming overly agressive or trying to get actively involved would be counterproductive in the extreme, and would only serve to further anger the more radical anti-American elements. In which case we could see active retaliation against us or Israel.
2. There's nothing significant he could legally do regardless.

[.Banshee]

Finds it funny that the media totally ditched Iran to focus on Michael Jackson. This makes me want to pimp slap those whores several times over.

I think that Iran is moving towards a new future, but I don't think Moussavi is really a good leader. He pretty much is a dumbed down version of Ahmadinejad. There is nothing revolutionary about his ideas and he is quite stupid. The only candidate that actually had good ideas threw in the towel after reports that he and his family were getting threatened with assassination if he continued running against Ahmadinejad.

[btill9000]

Finds it funny that the media totally ditched Iran to focus on Michael Jackson. This makes me want to pimp slap those whores several times over.


Yeh, everytime something like this happens it makes me wonder what the government is up to while no one is watching. I don't have an issue with Michael Jackon, but the media coverage was ridiculous. Couldn't watch TV for a few weeks.

[TW501]

Does anyone have anything to say about the hikers who were arrested by Iran? It seems like it could turn into a pretty big deal.

[BalrogLord]

So what do people think of President Obama's response to all of this? He's taken some heavy criticism for supposedly not being strong enough with his response. Personally, I think he's playing it safe, though he could probably be a bit more stern. Denouncing them is pretty much symbolic, as we don't really have anything to punish them with that we haven't already used. Also, if he were to give a long speech trashing the Iranian government, it would play in to their propoganda that this whole thing is all because of American interference. It's a tricky situation, and I think he's handling it cautiously.

Why does a foreign power have any right or power to say anything about another countrie's internal conflicts and have it carry weight? Obama needs to fix up his own damm country before patronising other countries about morality.

Im really starting to hate his foreign policy, this and some of the statements he made in africa regarding aid.

[btill9000]

All country's make statements about other country's internal conflicts and try to make them carry weight. Thats pretty much how international politics work. We are just better than other people at putting weight behind or statements.

[Tenno]

Honestly I think right now is a pivotal time for Iran, whether the Mullahs and Guardian Council stay in power or are overthrown by the people, in the same way Iran overthrew the Shah. I think that Ahmadinejad is underestimating his people, because the same people who brought him to power can also be instrumental in overthrowing him. The deaths of Iranian citizens and abuses by groups like the IRG, Basij Militia, and Police will do nothing but anger the citizens who are probably getting tired of this bullshit.