Osama bin Laden: Alive or Dead?

[TW501]

Osama bin Laden, leader of al-Qaeda, has been on the run since the United States war in Afghanistan began in 2001. Most believe he is in the lawless border region of Pakistan and Afghanistan. There is however a sizable number of people who believe he is in fact dead. Some believe he was killed in a US strike during the numerous bombings that have taken place, some think that he was killed in the 2005 earthquake that shook the region, and others believe he succumbed to natural causes such as a waterborn illness or a kidney condition.

I know there are a lot of people who believe there is some sort of conspiracy involved or that the CIA is trying to cover up his alleged death, but that's not really what this thread is about. This thread is about what people think the probability is that bin Laden is still out there.

[Exploits]

I know there are a lot of people who believe there is some sort of conspiracy involved or that the CIA is trying to cover up his alleged death, but that's not really what this thread is about.

Although admittedly, I wouldn't put that passed them.

Its entirely possible, but you'd have to have someone confirm it either in Al-Qaeda, or find his body. Whether he's alive or dead to me personally makes no difference, and the way things are going today, doesn't seem like it would make much of a difference to the Taliban or the War on Terror even (Assuming he is, of course, alive).

I do think he's dead, simply considering that there's not many places he can go, and it is most likely that he's in the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands, which has been a near-constant warzone for the last 9 years. The odds of him having a constant food and water supply, intel, transportation based on previous intel, and medical provisions strikes me as . . . well, impossible. That and even if the U.S. hasn't targetted an Air Strike at him directly, any stray missile or even bullet could kill or seriously wound him.

I just don't see him being alive.

[Yadomaru]

What really gets me is this obsession with Osama Bin Laden, regardless of the fact that even if he is captured or killed, someone else will take his place.
So whether he's alive or not is really irrelevant, because the man himself is unimportant - it's the organization that's the real threat.

[TW501]

It's more psychological than anything. Americans would receive a huge boost in morale were bin Laden killed or captured, and the terrorists would probably lose a lot of morale were he captured by US troops. I agree it probably won't change much in reality, but if it changes things in peoples heads, it could end up having an effect in the long run.
Think of the psychological effects of Osama bin Laden, mortal enemy of Americans and hero to terrorists, being tried and convicted by a court and sentenced to life imprisonment. He wouldn't get the death of a martyr, he would spend the rest of his days in a prison, wearing prisoner clothing and eating food provided by the people he hated so much.

I personally say that his odds of being dead or alive are 50-50. He may or may not be dead. There is certainly some evidence to suggest that he is alive but there is also evidence that he would be dead.

[ismey]

i dont know really but i will hazard a guess that he may be dead......since he is/was on a dialysis unit so wouldnt be able to go that far. if he is still alive then hes defintely near the afghan/pakistani border most likely nearer th pakistan one.........

[MMZ]

I think he's still alive unfortunately, and I highly doubt the CIA would cover up his death. If he was killed/captured while Bush was in office it would have shot his approval rating back up and possibly swayed the election. Considering the approval ratings he had, I'd think, "Hey, we got him! Up yours haters" would be the first thing on his mind.

[DarkBunny]

i think he's dead,there has been no new articles or recordings of him since 2005

[TW501]

There have been a few recordings of him, though I suppose they could have been forged by his followers. The most recent was in March I think. It was pretty much the same as the other ones in terms of theme. Destroy evil Israel, Muslims must take up arm, continue to fight the west, death to America; the usual stuff.

[striker-taii]

well, Osama Bin Laden has essentially become nothing more than a political tool/symbol allowing dem's to bash republican's, and now vice versa. The last I heard about anything was that he was reportedly in Iran, and the Obama administration knew about this, but has essentially declined the Iranian offer to have him handed over. Regardless of his current mortal state if we ever capture him, and kill him he becomes a martyr, if we capture him and let him rot?

I say he should be ignored he's no longer an issue, especially because of the fact that Al-Quida(may of botched this) is essentially defunct and they only seem to publicly exists in Afghanistan/Pakistan. Essentially the war although drawn out through attrition and lack of a decent long term strategy; I'm looking at the Bush administration on that one, though the surge changed things for the better, has essentially landed a big V next to the us forces. Now all that's left is for the us to finish up the security deal in Iraq, and finish the job in Afghanistan, and the bulk of the deployed forces can go back to where they were or come home.

well depending on the pentagon's need of course.

[TW501]

Where did you hear that he is in Iran? Virtually all sources I've heard say that he is somewhere along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border.

[striker-taii]

I heard that on a radio interview, but I cannot remember who it was who was answering those questions, even so it's still meaningless over where he is as that's not the real point o this topic is it?

[TW501]

I suppose, but it's still rather surprising to me that anyone thinks he's in Iran (that is, I never heard anyone say anything outside of Pakistan/Afghanistan that didn't involve CIA conspiracy). It's highly unlikely he would be in Iran, as he is Sunni and they are Shiite, and there's a lot of animosity between the two groups. He'd have a lot more difficulty getting people to shelter him or to turn a blind eye to his presence were he in Iran. He probably hates them almost as much as us and Israel.

[Kairen]

Let's not forget that Osama has powerful relatives in Saudi Arabia. He could easily be in hiding there. At this stage, however, anything is possible, but like someone else said, whether Osama is alive or dead presently makes little to no difference in what is happening in the middle-east right now. What can Osama do now that he's been on the run for so long, with most of his other connections most likely dead or deserted? I doubt he could've been hiding in the desert or some back-end town up until now. His chances of being dead now are higher than him being alive, but it wouldn't really make much of a difference. Osama might even have already been caught by the CIA, but the govt is hiding that fact for whichever reason, lest it be money or keeping the worldwide population in check.

[TW501]

If they had already killed him they would have already announced it. Remember that after Sadam was captured Bush's approval ratings and support for the war went up noticeably. It is extremely unlikely that he is in Saudi Arabia. If he's dead, we don't know about it for certain. There aren't as many places to hide there, the government is more firmly in control, and he is an enemy of the royal family. Most of the bin Laden family has already disowned him, and they're probably being watched just in case.

[Kairen]

That is true, when Saddam died, support for the war went up quite a bit. However, there's nothing better for a politician to rally support by giving the people a common enemy. That enemy is Bin Laden. It is a good way to distract them from what is happening within the boundaries of their own country. Perhaps the CIA has already captured them, but does not want to reveal that information to the public so that the people can keep placing their support for the war, which was strengthened with Saddam's capture. Of course, that was when Bush was around. Obama's in power now, but revealing that Osama's been captured will diminish the trust people had in the govt, not that it is very strong right now.

[Fatstogey]

I think hes alive. I mean if they wanted him dead they coulda killed him when he went to the hospital in dubai. And was treated by an american doctor. Im sure hes being well taken care of since he was the fall guy.